U.S. Employment forecast for 2010

Logic with help has a forecast on the Global Economy
The current rates are posted here by the United States Bureau of Statistics Current US unemployment rates however this article is focused on the Logic Prediction for the second half of 2010’s unemployment rates.

Logic believes that if the American consumer begins a trend that has been absent since the late 60’s and early 70’s that our prediction of the employment of America can be a scenario (written below) that plays out sending America into unemployment percentages not seen since the one in 1929 that lasted through the early 1940’s which was the Great Depression when the unemployment rate was 23.6%.

Employment percentages explained
We have been enjoying the economy as watchers and investors since 1983 and we have never needed to report about something like record unemployment that we will do today because if our scenario is even close to on the target we are predicting the government will not have the resources to help each American through these times in the form of a bailout like they have been doing for the banking industry and now the residential real estate industry.

We look at the current unemployment for June 2008 which nationwide sits at 5.5% but as a number it means nothing to us that have jobs so we pay little attention to the number subconsciously we just say “well the number is low and I have my job so it does not effect me and usually no one I know” so we go on about our lives.

What is not in the current unemployment rate is the drop offs those where the benefits run out and those that are under retirement age and capable of working but elect not to or just give up on trying to find work or are unwilling to take a job of lessor skill requirements and pay and in addition to derive at our 15% reality figure we add a little for those subsidised by employment payouts, early retirement and government subsidized persons.

We believe that if we add a realistic 15% to the current number regardless of the current percentage we are safe to say that the current unemployment rate is 20.5% and Viper Logic is located in California where the current June 2008 unemployment rate is 6.9% making the actual state number utilizing our formula is 21.9%.

Before you read our Scenario below and if you missed the article Economy? Is Retail in a Tailspin US Retail is in a tailspin that lead us to this prediction you might like to read our article

Possible Unemployment Scenario
The month is around June of of the year 2010 and with fuel prices anywhere above 100.00 dollars a barrel will assure fuel prices at the pump above 4.00 dollars and food, electric and service industry pricing are still rising causing the average American to reduce spending on extras even further to maintain some level of quality of life. The global producers of everything Americans buy (because we no longer produce products in America) are having mass layoffs riots in their streets effecting the entire global employment food chain.

Reported unemployment has been inching forward since the second half of 2008 each month as the largest employment sectors being areas where people are employed to sell all things from clothing, real estate, automotive, coffee, office products, pet supplies, food and anything we can imagine are adding to the monthly unemployment rate at alarming numbers bringing us to the new unemployment rate below.

Small business bankruptcy filing have been increasing since the first quarter of 2008 adding even more pressure to the unemployment figures as well as the major chain operators of fast food, coffee, clothing, sporting goods, Specialty good, electronics, restaurant and anything we can think of are filing for bankruptcy after a year or more of downsizing the number of locations and employees on a national scale pushing the reported unemployment rate to 25% we have a greater repeat in reported unemployment as the Great Depression.

Our Unemployment Prediction
Now we add the 15% reality number to the 25% reported unemployment number and the total US unemployment figures are 40% and before you call Logic a nut or a negative person we would like the opportunity to explain that this is how we see the unemployment playing out due mostly in our belief that Americans have come to the realization that the past 12 to 15 years of credit ease, money flow ease, plentiful opportunities, and the spending like we were all rich providing everything for a quick (short lived) feeling of good but all of those high end cars larger then we needed homes, Swiss watches and trips to places just to say we went there did nothing for their real quality of life and their savings and long-term retirement.

Americans begin saving more spending less
In our prediction of what will lead to the mass layoff in the area of sells will be that Americans are going to return to placing their emphasis more on savings and investing and less on consuming of course, this will be after the dust settles on the banking industry and the people payoff all of the debt they accumulated while the good life was rolling along.

Giving up on the spending and reducing the workforce required in the sells employment sectors is a really little price to pay if we are right and Americans begin focusing on their savings and retirement especially because we are living longer today then ever recorded before and this is in part one big driving factor in our prediction.

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