Unemployment experts predictions incorrect

Logic is a hobbyist of economists
Look no one wants more then Logic to see the return to the great economy of the roaring times of pre 2006 but reality is sharing a different opinion and Logic really believes that the economy will not return to the times of the easy credit and consumers buying everything just to buy it and we have a really good understanding of why it will not, along with these thoughts we also will share why the unemployment figures of the experts that were surveyed in mid November about unemployment being 7.5% at its peek are very incorrect.

Logic understands these are paid economists they do not want to stand out even be fired for their true predictions so the result of these types is conservatism, and truth be told this is really very irresponsible reporting on their behaves though who can blame them they need their jobs also, right. 

How we predict unemployment figures
Regardless of the current reported unemployment figure of 6.5% the way we look at the total unemployment is to add all of the persons living in America that can work these figures are not including those that give up after benefits are exhausted then minus those to young to work under 18 and minus those that are over the retirement age and our estimates are 15% +/- 5% above the current unemployment rate making the current unemployment rate 31.5%.

Compelling reasons for high unemployment
If Logic is not correct then why are states, counties and cities asking the Federal Government for infrastructure funds early when unemployment is currently at 6.5% it is really easy to see where Logic predicts the 25% unemployment and the 15% not counted. That is 40% unemployment folks but before you click off of this article or dismiss Logic as out of touch the next few paragraphs might allow you to see what we see.

No manufacturing demand overseas
Next since we buy in America so much of all the products produced from China, yet there is currently rising numbers of factory closures and people in these third world nations have been and will continue to see rioting over these changing overseas times because so many persons living in China had a taste of money only to have it taken away and this shares with us that America is not only not buying today but this clearly shows that American Retailers are not and have not ordered in the quantities if at all from China and other supplying nations as the holiday season grows nearer meaning that America will not have a gift related holiday season generally the largest annual retail sells period.

Americans in Retail Space Prediction
With the amount of American’s working in the retail be it from the small flipper business of buying from places like China mark it up then sell it for a profit, then the number of big chain stores added across America we predict that retail, car, real estate, banking computer hardware and software and food services will be the biggest hit to commercial retail space resulting in the 2010 range that 50% of all retail space across America will be empty boxes and shells.

Our 2010 Unemployment Forecasted written 07/25/2008
We wrote the above titled article (see link below) then we had a high readership of our prediction on US Unemployment by 2010 you can read it here at 2010 a Nation of Sadness.
We also wrote the below article about retail employment in America if you would like to learn about handling the coming unemployment times ahead to 2010
Do you work in sales? Should you be worried?.

Here is the recovery of America 20 to 30 year cycle looking forward
We are predicting that Americans will return to savings allowing the current teenagers through 50 year old range to save like no other time then since following the Great Depression and this while painful we believe that American’s have learned a valuable lesson and they realize for all of those easy credit days and mass scale consumption days did nothing for them they are realizing that they spent there children, children money and a price must now be paid. When following the great depression American’s had also learned this hard lesson of easy money for doing nothing and living large that all ended one day following 1929 - 1933 and began a very saving conscious period as well as the stock market did not recover until around 1952 - 1954 and if you review the estimated time lines that is your 20 to 30 year cycle that we are headed into now.

This means those young persons living today that have not yet had children will remember not having the easy times and as their children grow up they will want the things for them they did not have returning in part to the America of the past 20 to 30 year cycle of buying their children anything and everything just like the period that just ended.

Americans are saving not spending
First the personal debt must retract then as American’s have extra money they are more out to begin a massive savings program that they will try to share with their future children with little to no success resulting in a repeated cycle though cycles as with history never repeat the exact same way twice.