Economic correction or underestimated recovery

Do you really understand the drawback effect of markets?

More then likely, you do not.
This is why Logic wants to share it with you.
What we all saw when the global market over heated was the equivalent of the old Logic story about the 5 year old child that raced home to tell his mother about a horrific automobile accident a block away that the child saw on the way home from School.

A child reacts like the market
Over sold, over told they are the same.
This child shares about an horrific accident with his mother, when the mother walks down the block to investigate there was little more then a fender bender with some steam from the radiator coming out from under the hood of one of the cars.

Consumers and corporations reacted identical
When the housing, banks, major funds and stocks all began to shrink from the early signs in March 2006 then by 2007 a recession a year later was called, the effect was in play, a depression was predicted, consumers had began reducing spending mostly through credit cuts from lenders, lost borrowing opportunities against their homes causing the reduction of consumption of everyday things, unneeded things, things without looking at the prices, automobiles, appliances, travel and providing their children with every want they desired, even if they did not need or deserve it.

Corporations began making low ball quarterly sales and profit estimates 
Like the 5 year old and the consumer the corporations of our planet began predicting far lower numbers, numbers most were comfortable they could achieve based on consumer and B to B spending, so as to not come in under the Wall Street estimates (rather guestamates) and they did, corporations overly lowered their expectations.

Once the initial shock of the falling in value of everything calmed
The consumer having a lifestyle, they are more then likely unwilling to reduce, figured out how to maintain the continued use of credit cards and other means like the cashing of the Ira’s or 401k’s anything to maintain their lifestyles.
Consumers settled down and settled into life with a bit less and they did begin spending slightly ever so little bit more each month for more then a true year taking us to where we are nearing December 2009.

December will show that the consumer, who began buying into the economic recovery through the media, thought that the money would follow soon, they are actually being effected by the credit crunch, no raises, higher cost of goods and services and job losses and finally these conditions are taking their toll. 

Corporations began to raise their estimate of the numbers
Consumers who had stopped or slowed spending had began to ease some through a push to buy things with incentives like 75% this or that and car subsidizing by the government began to bring in though slowly at first higher income levels to the bottom line of corporations, so corporations began to raise their estimates on the numbers for sales and income causing Wall Street to take notice again and thus Wall Street began to up the projected numbers higher for these corporations quarterly earnings reports.

Here comes the second dropping shoe
The whole concept that the world is in a recovery, we feel is not true at all.

What Logic believes we are seeing are due to many items, including the massive stimulus package of the government that is more then likely priced into the open market.

Consumers have continued to run those credit cards up, up and away, they continued to withdraw or have cashed in IRA’s and 401k’s dollars to their limits, mostly because the money was used to continue living, the outside of their means, lifestyles rather then to pay down debt.

This was borrowed money
Government does so why not you.
Once again at work not real income like how the world got into this freefall economic position including the US the largest global borrower, sort of like winning a small amount of lottery money that when spent, soon ran out, it is a gift, not continual incoming monthly money is the only safe money to spend.

Christmas time brings us to March 2010
We are all aware that employment is to continue falling into and we a sure through 2010.
Christmas and mind you Logic has for years felt that the next Christmas would be the worst retail sales Christmas, only to be proven incorrect year after year since 2005.

Resources are tired
This time the economic signs are different.
Consumers are financially exhausted and there is no piggy bank to barrow more money from making this the year Logic gets the retail sales more then correct and knowing that businesses in the Christmas retail game count on this surge for as much as 80% of their annual sales will take many more malls, strip malls and businesses out across the globe.

When these retailers show up in the retail sales numbers from Christmas, in March 2010 we will see large jumps in unemployment, small and large retail business closures, more home foreclosures and auto repossessions. Credit card defaults will go through the roof following all of this activity, all because in particularly in America where roughly 70% of all spending is consumer spending.

Additional resources
Read the Unemployment Prediction for 2010. 
Read Retail Space Commercial Real Estate. 

Commentary on Unemployment
Why unemployment might be high
When you want a countries citizens to comply with things like more government and government protection, health benefits, extended unemployment benefits and public stimulus checks you keep the unemployment high to keep your citizens in compliance with your policy agenda.

If the US government has created this on purpose then it is going to have catastrophic consequences on our usually civilized society.

When unemployment will really rise
This is also commentary and just for thought on the countries current government leader President Obama.

When tax revenues decrease through more sliding export, higher unemployment, Americans paying down debt and not taking on new debt, along with the amount of dollars already in the printing presses creating debt that will place each Americans share well into the stratosphere for repayment, he will have only a few options.

Generate a war, a big war like with a real country, say China, or the UK (not our current wars, big guys picking on little guys)

Reduce Federal Employees to reduce expenses; this is only true option here, cut employees at the federal level and in our opinion will take us into our 2010 unemployment predictions.

We see clearly how each state, county and city in the US is already cutting days and employees at an alarming rate.

Empty Technology Companies
The Tech Bubble prediction shares the impact on computer related employment, when too many companies based their business models on advertising space revenue or producing Applications or APP’s that while very popular they had no ability to truly convert from free to revenue.

Sounds like the number of monthly site visitors has became important one more time, does this remind any of you of the tech bubble burst or bust in 1999?
Conversion from free to paid or advertising click hopefulness is hard enough but when a portion of your free site traffic visitors are from under developed nations, the conversion to revenue is a big “not going to happen” scenario.

Additional resources 
Read the entire Tech Bubble bust prediction for 2010. 

There is a large upside to the economic news
Land fills are receiving less stuff to cover up
Shipping by freight companies is keeping the streets clearer and the pollution down
Air travel and in fact tourism is continuing to slide
Fearful employees are reducing travel and telecommuting
Employees are becoming more thankful and working harder at their jobs
Humans are thinking before producing another carbon footprint (child) 
Golf courses are seeing less people closing and reducing water waste
More households are getting into recycling for income

The list goes on and on and on, in fact Logic is sure you can see reductions on wasted resources in your own hometown.

Best News
Family values should strengthen, proof is when there is less or no money in a family, they do more together, bond and strengthen, this is a true positive in a tough economic time, though Logic does not really feel these are tough times as much as it is an economic correction, these corrections though painful at times are healthy.