California Unemployment Forecast

Welcome to unemployment 2010 for California
Welcome to California.
First please allow me to explain about this disturbing article and its author.
Hello my name is Logic a California native with a history of California not found in many Californian’s as the knowledge expert on the subject of California it is my passion to stay atop of all things California.

Bases to build your trust
I have been an economist to the capacity of a hobbyist since 1983 trading in the markets and studying the conversion of our economy from a producing, growing and manufacturing state to a high tech and sales state.

Leading up to our forecast
The high tech sector does not have Logic concerned besides us as a company Viper Logic has been operating our Advanced Technology Engineering Company since May 1993.

The Tech effect
We are confident that the technology sector, though it will go through layoffs in the sells portion of the tech sector from companies like search, Web 2.0 online sales, social networks and on and on however the fundamental bases of true technology producers those that build the tools, programs and services that help other in their job capacities and that provide other businesses money will fare well. 

The largest job loss sector is going to be those in sales in all industries a result of what easy credit and inflated values in assets created.

No mater perhaps where in California you live you might be observing through television and radio commercials the amount of localized restaurant, retail, cars and home improvement advertising taking place a clear sign that sells are down.

Where Logic gathers the information
Logic has connections with a wide variety of persons that own, manage or work in businesses dealing with the public from the California Deserts, San Diego, Orange, Los Angeles, San Luis Obispo, Monterey and San Francisco Counties and we are aware sales are off in resorts, automotive, mid range to high end retail, real estate, beauty and restaurants from 40 to 60% and this is only the beginning of the 2009 year.

California is in big debt
You have been hearing a lot about our state debt and are aware already, so this billion of dollars of shortfall is going to cause state employee layoffs that are going to come and are going to be unavoidable. As a reminder the largest employer in California is the State of California.

Largest sectors of California to see layoffs
This is where the fear factor comes into play as it is in the area where over the past 20 to 25 years this sector has grown to a level that was really not sustainable.

Welcome to the world of mid and high end sales
California like no other state in the union, with Californian’s gaining high paper worth valuations over the past two decades lived a life of appearing rich, feeling wealthy when actually they were living a life of 0 bank balance, debt bubble building believing that tomorrow they would regain the money barrowed or the house they own could bail them out each time the price rose.

Not rich after all
These working class Californian’s feelings of wealth lead the common Californian to spend, spend, spend, and they did. This urge to spend lead the mid to high end retailers to build and expand across the nation. California was one hot market so retailers heavily invested in retail locations throughout the entire state of California.

Each location added, required more sales people to support these locations and in fact in the inland counties these retail outlets built large distribution warehouses hiring even more personal to operate these channels.

The new retail locations required leases or purchases of buildings requiring even more employment by builders and property management firms and so on.

Now Californian’s are in debt
The truth will come, be it now, or during this year heading towards and into 2010 as the value of the assets of Californian’s decrease, the cost of goods and services rise and the credit limits on charge cards continue to be decreased. There will be no choice but to discontinue the frivolous spending of the past two decades and this will lead to the largest unemployment in the history of California greater then the Great Depression.

Before you laugh read this thought
Today the unemployment percentage for California reported is 9.3% and with the latest report from the State of California on total state population released January 2008 sitting at 38 million the current 9.3% reported come out to 3,534,000 million unemployed.

Logic Unemployment Engine
Logic uses an unemployment model that looks at employment in a different and we feel more accurate way.
It works really well and is easy to show, take the current California unemployment figure of 9.3% reported, then look at all residents living in California that are over 18 and under retirement age, add those that have come off of collecting unemployment benefits, exclude the college and vocational school students and we come up with a percentage of 15% it is actually 10% plus or minus 5% for those legitimately injured or not capable of employment and our current actual percentage of unemployment is 19.3% plus or minus the 5%.

This is only the beginning
This means that current unemployment in California is 7,334,000 million and we as a nation and as a state is just beginning the reduction in unemployment and if retail sales support and services for the following industries will lead to our prediction at the end of this article.

Effected industries
Automotive manufacturing what little we have left, automotive distribution, automotive sales, real estate sales, real estate loans, real estate builders, real estate support services, retail all to some level harder for mid to high end, computer hardware for IT and entertainment, food services restaurants and support services, tourism attractions and resorts example Disneyland brings 50% + income into Orange Counties largest city Anaheim, entertainment no funding mega budget films, entertainment venues theatre and support and services, residential services like pool cleaners, maids, car washers, cable and satellite, gardeners etc, publications including online advertising sells and you name it. 

Good industries to work in
Agriculture, computer software, solar and wind, road infrastructure, welding, credit repair or anything that is a staple of necessity things you and I can not live without like electricity, medical and lawyers as law suits prevail when economies turn down.

What did Logic miss
What you might notice that should have been obvious to be an item of necessity is law enforcement even county and city services but above we mentioned that the State of California will be laying off mass amounts of employees and when the state does this there is a domino effect that will reduce employment in counties and cities and in particular, law enforcement.

Logic Unemployment Prediction for California
Based on the numbers and current direction of the unemployment for California we see an unemployment figure of 40% reported and with our 10% plus or minus 5% the number is 50%.

If Logic is correct and of course we believe we are, though we wish to god we were not, that means that just for California the unemployment for 2010 is 19,000,000 million.

The Obama statement
Prior to election to the office of commander and chief for America Mr. Obama was saying he would need to find work for 3 million people and later he revised the need to find work for 3.5 to 4 million people.

We already are very aware that Mr. Obama is loved by his voters and this is fine freedom of choice however the current unemployment that California is dealing with meets or nearly meets the total number of jobs Mr. Obama will create he says 4 million California has 3,534,000 jobs that are needed and this is only one of fifty states.

Our Government is lying to protect us (shocking like the bank bailout)
You and I are being lied to, to reduce panic stimulate spending from the consumer sector (short term thinking with little benefit long term) but by hiding the true numbers from the American people you are sure to take America into a (and we believe this) worse then the Great Depression time and we are going to see mass hunger, theft and riots in our streets destroying the current quality of life we enjoy today. 

Additional Reading about Unemployment on the national level
Our best prediction for unemployment for 2010 shows the predictions based on our unemployment model and it is really important reading it is based on the entire United States where this article is on California as a worse state case model. The article is dated July 25, 2008 very pre existing conditions and Pre President Obama Unemployment Prediction 2010.

Logic has helpful and positive advice
If you do not need a material item, you will die if you do not buy it, then do not buy it.

If Logic is wrong and I hope I am, you will be doing what the smarter American’s are doing saving your money, paying down debt, in the end if I am wrong and all gets better before our prediction of 2014, with caution though, we will not see hay day spending in America like that the past 15 years, for at least 30 years down to road from now, when the pain and suffering of the current adults today will have worn off, you will have money in the bank or mattress to spend as you please making our prediction a savings plan for your future.

You might select to read about American’s return to savings Do you Work in Sales? Should you be Worried?.